# Can 'New EU Bauhaus' & 'Renovation Wave' Dramatically Reduce Embodied Carbon? **URL:** \ **Category:** Reuse\ **Tags:** build-less\ **Created:** [June 27, 2021, 8:24am UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770 "2021-06-27T08:24:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![david.ness](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/david.ness/32/731_2.png) [@david.ness](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/david.ness)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2021, 8:24am UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/1 "2021-06-27T08:24:29Z")
My article just published in AGATHÓN I International Journal of Architecture, Art & Design [https://www.agathon.it/agathon/article/view/228/267](https://www.agathon.it/agathon/article/view/228/267) The New Bauhaus is emerging in Europe, and likely to have international repercussions. ---
**Author:** ![will.nash](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/will.nash/32/2270_2.png) [@will.nash](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/will.nash)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2021, 7:59pm UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/2 "2021-07-21T19:59:19Z")
Great article David, renovation and refurbishment are only going to become more prevalent in coming years. I was trying to find the source of the building forecasts, and what they are based on - I suspect that once these forecasts are made they are self-fulfilling prophecies. However, it seems that if humanity is to survive, at some point we will need to cease all construction and redirect resources to regenerating the planet - likely well before 2050. Can you please link me to the sources for the building forecasts? ---
**Author:** ![david.ness](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/david.ness/32/731_2.png) [@david.ness](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/david.ness)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2021, 1:49pm UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/3 "2021-07-22T13:49:19Z")
Thanks again Will for your interest in my writings. Not sure what building forecasts you mean? I hope I covered by references. But this UNEP (2020) report may help [https://globalabc.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/2020%20Buildings%20GSR\_FULL%20REPORT.pdf](https://globalabc.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/2020%20Buildings%20GSR_FULL%20REPORT.pdf) Also I referred to this large IPCC Report, especially its refs to buildings [https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/download/](https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/download/) Plus UN Emissions Gap report 2020 [https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) There are also some diagrams on p.24 of article (within Italian part). Please let me know if this is not what you are seeking, happy to oblige. BTW, I am STILL pursuing project with Green Bldg Council of Australia and Arup to change rating system to acknowledge embodied carbon and the SIZE of buildings, as we discussed some time ago. Have produced draft report, more to be done. But will certainly keep you in mind. Look forward much to keep in contact. Best regards David ---
**Author:** ![will.nash](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/will.nash/32/2270_2.png) [@will.nash](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/will.nash)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2021, 4:32pm UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/4 "2021-07-26T16:32:33Z")
Thanks David - I am referring to the building forecasts that say (if I remember correctly) ‘Globally we are scheduled to build the size of Japan every year for the next 40 years.’ I believe it was an Architecture 2030 publication. ---
**Author:** ![david.ness](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/david.ness/32/731_2.png) [@david.ness](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/david.ness)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2021, 3:08am UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/5 "2021-07-28T03:08:23Z")
I found it, Will ! It was on page 13 of this UN Environment Global Status Report 2017 report [https://www.worldgbc.org/sites/default/files/UNEP%20188\_GABC\_en%20(web).pdfI](https://www.worldgbc.org/sites/default/files/UNEP%20188_GABC_en%20(web).pdfI) referred to it in my article ‘Growth in floor area: the blind spot in cutting carbon’ (Emerald, 2020). I also seem to recall seeing similar quote on Architecture 2030. Thanks for reminding me of this again. David ---
**Author:** ![david.ness](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/david.ness/32/731_2.png) [@david.ness](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/david.ness)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2021, 5:14am UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/6 "2021-07-28T05:14:33Z")
Will, Please try this link if other does not work > **[UNEP%20188\_GABC\_en%20(web).pdf](https://www.worldgbc.org/sites/default/files/UNEP%20188_GABC_en%20(web).pdf)** > > 3.48 MB Best regards David ---
**Author:** ![will.nash](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/will.nash/32/2270_2.png) [@will.nash](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/will.nash)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2021, 9:30pm UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/7 "2021-07-28T21:30:20Z")
Thanks David - I went down the rabbit hole of IEA / GABC reports to try and find the assumptions behind the modelling. It seems they reference each other going back to 2015, but don’t really provide any details. Of course the IEA is technology driven and any concept of degrowth is verboten. It is probably not viable to try and restrict building for the developing world, and indeed the inequity in this approach is glaring when you consider that the top 10% wealthiest sector produce 50% of emissions. However, I don’t believe we can meet these growth figures with current technologies without risking biodiversity collapse alongside climate catastrophe. ---
**Author:** ![david.ness](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.carbonleadershipforum.org/david.ness/32/731_2.png) [@david.ness](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/u/david.ness)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2021, 8:24am UTC](https://community.carbonleadershipforum.org/t/can-new-eu-bauhaus-renovation-wave-dramatically-reduce-embodied-carbon/3770/8 "2021-07-30T08:24:52Z")
Appreciate and agree with your deep and wise insights, Will. I began to delve into modelling by researchers. Here is one recent publication by Arehart et al. 2021. in fact, they kindly reviewed my previous article about ‘Growth in floor area’, [https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.0c05081](https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.0c05081) Will keep digging…