I much appreciate your important and pertinent question @ryanl
Sure, can be difficult for a Contractor to steer a client towards building less.
French architects Lavaton and Vassal have managed this successfully e.g. they were asked to redesign a large square but said it just needed some minor changes Modest maestros Lacaton and Vassal win 2021 Pritzker Prize
They saved their clients money, but I wonder if they sacrificed a large fee or had a different fee arrangement with client?
When carbon pricing becomes widespread (as it surely must), this will steer clients towards more modest solutions that consume less resources and carbon.
In a ‘build less’ regime, I see more opportunities for contractors in adapting, maintaining and renovating existing buildings stock, and in finding new profit centres in asset management. Because existing buildings are intended to be net zero by 2050, there will surely be huge opportunities for energy efficiency upgrades e.g. the ‘Renovation Wave’ policy of Euro Commission - with the opportunity for related building upgrades (e.g. safety, functionality) at the same time.
In that regard, although there are likely to be less new builds, there will still be substantial construction work in modifying the infill/fitout to suit changing user needs within the existing structural fabric (the latter represents about 80% of embodied carbon, as I understand).
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