I can’t speak to what will happen in other countries, Don, but I am familiar with what has happened with regard to private working forests in the U.S. Since the 1950’s our population has increased by over 80%, bringing a corresponding unprecedented increase in demand for housing and other consumer goods made from trees. During this same period our forest land base has remained stable, and the volume of wood in our standing inventory has increased by nearly 60%. That suggests a strong supply side response to growing demand. In fact, in some areas of the country the supply response has been so vigorous that supply relative to demand is depressing log prices and threatening the conversion of forests to other uses.
Because of the need to balance harvest and forest regeneration to maintain the viability of forestry as a commercial enterprise, it is likely that supply and demand will continue to rationalize over time as they have in the past. If supply becomes constrained, price will increase, and demand will respond accordingly, etc.
Using a carbon stocks test can serve as a surrogate for the supply and demand dynamics. So long as carbon stocks remain stable or are increasing in a region, the carbon impact of sourcing from that region can be considered neutral to negative. If the carbon balance turns into a net source, the carbon benefits calculation changes accordingly.
A great resource on this topic is the Office of the Chief Economist at USDA. Bill Hohenstein in that office has studied this topic extensively and is a great resource to understand the historic and likely future market dynamics.
Again, I can only speak to private working forests in the US, but I hope this helps at least to some degree.
Dave