Can 'New EU Bauhaus' & 'Renovation Wave' Dramatically Reduce Embodied Carbon?

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My article just published in AGATHÓN I International Journal of Architecture, Art & Design
https://www.agathon.it/agathon/article/view/228/267
The New Bauhaus is emerging in Europe, and likely to have international repercussions.

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Great article David, renovation and refurbishment are only going to become more prevalent in coming years. I was trying to find the source of the building forecasts, and what they are based on - I suspect that once these forecasts are made they are self-fulfilling prophecies. However, it seems that if humanity is to survive, at some point we will need to cease all construction and redirect resources to regenerating the planet - likely well before 2050. Can you please link me to the sources for the building forecasts?

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Thanks again Will for your interest in my writings.

Not sure what building forecasts you mean?

I hope I covered by references.

But this UNEP (2020) report may help https://globalabc.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/2020%20Buildings%20GSR_FULL%20REPORT.pdf

Also I referred to this large IPCC Report, especially its refs to buildings https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/download/

Plus UN Emissions Gap report 2020 https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020

There are also some diagrams on p.24 of article (within Italian part).

Please let me know if this is not what you are seeking, happy to oblige.

BTW, I am STILL pursuing project with Green Bldg Council of Australia and Arup to change rating system to acknowledge embodied carbon and the SIZE of buildings, as we discussed some time ago. Have produced draft report, more to be done. But will certainly keep you in mind.

Look forward much to keep in contact.

Best regards

David

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Thanks David - I am referring to the building forecasts that say (if I remember correctly) ‘Globally we are scheduled to build the size of Japan every year for the next 40 years.’ I believe it was an Architecture 2030 publication.

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I found it, Will !
It was on page 13 of this UN Environment Global Status Report 2017 report https://www.worldgbc.org/sites/default/files/UNEP%20188_GABC_en%20(web).pdfI referred to it in my article ‘Growth in floor area: the blind spot in cutting carbon’ (Emerald, 2020).
I also seem to recall seeing similar quote on Architecture 2030.
Thanks for reminding me of this again.
David

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Will, Please try this link if other does not work

Best regards
David

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Thanks David - I went down the rabbit hole of IEA / GABC reports to try and find the assumptions behind the modelling. It seems they reference each other going back to 2015, but don’t really provide any details. Of course the IEA is technology driven and any concept of degrowth is verboten.

It is probably not viable to try and restrict building for the developing world, and indeed the inequity in this approach is glaring when you consider that the top 10% wealthiest sector produce 50% of emissions. However, I don’t believe we can meet these growth figures with current technologies without risking biodiversity collapse alongside climate catastrophe.

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Appreciate and agree with your deep and wise insights, Will.
I began to delve into modelling by researchers.
Here is one recent publication by Arehart et al. 2021.
in fact, they kindly reviewed my previous article about ‘Growth in floor area’,
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.0c05081
Will keep digging…